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In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Speaking at the Conference, Justin Cox, Director of Global Production of LMC Automotive, spoke about the prospects of production, sales and exports of light cars in Europe. He noted that the world car market is growing for the ninth year in a row. But in the future, positive risks can be prevented by existing risks.

Europe is worried about the future of cars, which for Ukraine can be successful. ECG Conference

How do national logistics operators prepare for the growth of the electric vehicle market?

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

The possible prospects for the decline in car sales in the European market, as well as about the reduction in exports of European automotive manufacturers, began to speak immediately after the announcement of brexite by the UK. But today the situation was aggravated by other risks for the European market. Although, until now everything is not clear with the very brixite. But the UK exports 30% of its automotive output outside Europe. Therefore, there are two scenarios: pessimistic and optimistic, in which there is almost no optimism.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

To protect the logistics, investments are needed in the repair and maintenance of roads, bridges, tunnels and ports of the EU countries. But some governments are not interested in developing transport infrastructure. And breksit strongly hits the European budget, which could be used for this, the European Parliament member Ines Ayala Sender said at the conference. And this is one of the risks.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

According to the forecast of Justin Cox, after the final withdrawal of the UK from the European Union in 2020, the European car market will be reduced by 1 million units. And according to the optimistic scenario, the total sales in the European market will amount to 3 million cars a year. And according to the pessimistic – 2.5 million.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Most of all exports to the UK are German automobile concerns. There goes 1/3 of the products of the European Ford, many exports Spain. But from the UK there is an export BMW, MINI, Nissan, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, Bentley and others. And in BMW Now they are seriously thinking about the possibility of transferring British production to China. That because of the range of delivery will make cars more expensive. But it will still be more profitable than payment of possible duties on British products, as not produced in the EU. And this is also a risk.

But the most terrible thing is uncertainty, since no one knows exactly what will happen after the brecci. And uncertainty is known to have a bad effect on car sales.

The forecast for the growth of the European automotive market for 2018 is only 2.3% compared to 2017. And basically this growth will come at the expense of buses. Even in countries such as Germany has already slowed the pace of production and sales of cars.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

At the same time, in China – market growth + 40%, in India – + 14%, in Brazil – + 7%, and even in Iran more than in Europe – + 3%.

When the drivers are finally driven out from behind the wheel of the car? Overview of autopilot systems

Car logistics operators are preparing for “network cars”. Results of the ECG 2017 Congress in Malta

Risk is also a US protectionist policy for its automotive manufacturers. After all, 25% of cars are exported from Europe to America. For example, in the European branches of Daimler, 12% of production goes to the USA, Audi has 14%, BMW – 15%, VW – 25%, Bentley – more than a quarter, y –Lamborghini – more than a third.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Another threat to the European automobile market is the strengthening of requirements for harmful emissions into the atmosphere. And then everything is not as simple as it might seem at first glance. After all, the wide distribution of cars with diesel engines, in due time motivated the Kyoto Protocol. According to it, producers had to reduce CO2 emissions. And they have diesel engines less than gasoline engines. But unlike gasoline power units, diesel engines cause great damage to the environment by the release of particulate nitrogen dioxide. Last year, 70 German cities reported an excessive level of NOx, which could cause problems with breathing and premature death. A similar picture emerged in Britain, France and Italy.

Therefore, many potential European buyers decided to postpone the purchase of a new car at all until the situation is clear.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

But the complexity of the “diesel against gasoline” situation is also in the fact that the reduction in sales in Europe of cars with diesel power units has increased the overall level of CO2 emissions. And if European producers do not comply with the rules for harmful emissions, they risk receiving a fine of 4.5 billion euros. But the new engineering solutions that automakers are forced to find and use to reduce harmful emissions make cars more expensive. Even more expensive are the operation of cars with ICE taxes on harmful emissions.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

ECG Executive Director Mike Sturgeon introduced a new test to measure fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of WLTP. This new improved laboratory fuel test replaces NEDS, which has been in use since the 1980s. WLTP is supplemented with a test Real Driving Emissions (RDE), which will measure emissions of pollutants when driving in real traffic conditions on the road. WLTP will provide a much more accurate basis for calculating fuel consumption per vehicle and CO2 emissions, as it reflects more real factors and, consequently, car performance on the road. This test will be applied to all new vehicle registrations as early as September 2018.

Speaking at the Conference, Justin Cox, Director of Global Production of LMC Automotive, spoke about the prospects of production, sales and exports of light cars in Europe. He noted that the world car market is growing for the ninth year in a row. But in the future, positive risks can be prevented by existing risks.

Europe is worried about the future of cars, which for Ukraine can be successful. ECG Conference

How do national logistics operators prepare for the growth of the electric vehicle market?

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

The possible prospects for the decline in car sales in the European market, as well as about the reduction in exports of European automotive manufacturers, began to speak immediately after the announcement of brexite by the UK. But today the situation was aggravated by other risks for the European market. Although, until now everything is not clear with the very brixite. But the UK exports 30% of its automotive output outside Europe. Therefore, there are two scenarios: pessimistic and optimistic, in which there is almost no optimism.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

To protect the logistics, investments are needed in the repair and maintenance of roads, bridges, tunnels and ports of the EU countries. But some governments are not interested in developing transport infrastructure. And breksit strongly hits the European budget, which could be used for this, the European Parliament member Ines Ayala Sender said at the conference. And this is one of the risks.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

According to the forecast of Justin Cox, after the final withdrawal of the UK from the European Union in 2020, the European car market will be reduced by 1 million units. And according to the optimistic scenario, the total sales in the European market will amount to 3 million cars a year. And according to the pessimistic – 2.5 million.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Most of all exports to the UK are German automobile concerns. There goes 1/3 of the products of the European Ford, many exports Spain. But from the UK there is an export BMW, MINI, Nissan, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, Bentley and others. And in BMW Now they are seriously thinking about the possibility of transferring British production to China. That because of the range of delivery will make cars more expensive. But it will still be more profitable than payment of possible duties on British products, as not produced in the EU. And this is also a risk.

But the most terrible thing is uncertainty, since no one knows exactly what will happen after the brecci. And uncertainty is known to have a bad effect on car sales.

The forecast for the growth of the European automotive market for 2018 is only 2.3% compared to 2017. And basically this growth will come at the expense of buses. Even in countries such as Germany has already slowed the pace of production and sales of cars.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

At the same time, in China – market growth + 40%, in India – + 14%, in Brazil – + 7%, and even in Iran more than in Europe – + 3%.

When the drivers are finally driven out from behind the wheel of the car? Overview of autopilot systems

Car logistics operators are preparing for “network cars”. Results of the ECG 2017 Congress in Malta

Risk is also a US protectionist policy for its automotive manufacturers. After all, 25% of cars are exported from Europe to America. For example, in the European branches of Daimler, 12% of production goes to the USA, Audi has 14%, BMW – 15%, VW – 25%, Bentley – more than a quarter, y –Lamborghini – more than a third.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Another threat to the European automobile market is the strengthening of requirements for harmful emissions into the atmosphere. And then everything is not as simple as it might seem at first glance. After all, the wide distribution of cars with diesel engines, in due time motivated the Kyoto Protocol. According to it, producers had to reduce CO2 emissions. And they have diesel engines less than gasoline engines. But unlike gasoline power units, diesel engines cause great damage to the environment by the release of particulate nitrogen dioxide. Last year, 70 German cities reported an excessive level of NOx, which could cause problems with breathing and premature death. A similar picture emerged in Britain, France and Italy.

Therefore, many potential European buyers decided to postpone the purchase of a new car at all until the situation is clear.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

But the complexity of the “diesel against gasoline” situation is also in the fact that the reduction in sales in Europe of cars with diesel power units has increased the overall level of CO2 emissions. And if European producers do not comply with the rules for harmful emissions, they risk receiving a fine of 4.5 billion euros. But the new engineering solutions that automakers are forced to find and use to reduce harmful emissions make cars more expensive. Even more expensive are the operation of cars with ICE taxes on harmful emissions.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

ECG Executive Director Mike Sturgeon introduced a new test to measure fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of WLTP. This new improved laboratory fuel test replaces NEDS, which has been in use since the 1980s. WLTP is supplemented with a test Real Driving Emissions (RDE), which will measure emissions of pollutants when driving in real traffic conditions on the road. WLTP will provide a much more accurate basis for calculating fuel consumption per vehicle and CO2 emissions, as it reflects more real factors and, consequently, car performance on the road. This test will be applied to all new vehicle registrations as early as September 2018.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

To date, the new requirements are already fully in line with Volvo, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Lexus, Daimler, Jaguar, Land Rover, Peugeot, Citroen DS, Nissan, Infiniti, Renault Group.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

So the European automobile giants are stimulating not only to improve their petrol engines, but also to quickly move to electric vehicles. However, there is a problem.

According to forecasts of the largest German union IG Metal, if, as planned by the EU program, 25% of all cars will be electric, 15% – hybrid and 60% – gasoline and diesel by 2030, in Germany, perhaps 75 000 jobs. A faster transition to electric vehicles threatens the German automotive industry with the loss of 100,000 jobs. Basically, these are workers engaged in the production and assembly of internal combustion engines and gearboxes.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

In addition, for electric vehicles in the EU countries, the infrastructure has not yet been fully prepared. And it’s not just about charging stations, but about increasing the load on the network, which can affect the increase in the cost of electricity. So – to buy electric cars will be even less than cars with ICE.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

According to AUTO-Consulting CEO of AvtoLogistics Pavel Gaidai, who participated in the ECG Conference in Madrid, some European logistics operators are so pessimistic that either they are already out of this business or plan to do it before 2020. According to Mr. Gaidai, the risks of falling production, export and sales in Europe are so great that today many refuse to renew the fleet of auto transporters. They believe that new trucks simply will not have time to pay off before, and even more so after the stagnation of the European automobile market began. And this is a very alarming signal.

In Europe, began to prepare for the inevitable decline in car sales

Details about the risks that threaten the European car market, the analysis of possible scenarios, as well as how this will affect the prices of cars in Ukraine, AUTO-Consulting will tell in the coming days.

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